This report focusses on Police Scotland management information as a key indicator of recent drug death trends in Scotland.
In January 2021 the Scottish Government announced a National Mission to reduce Scotland’s unacceptable drug death rates. Part of this commitment is to improve data and surveillance. This report is published quarterly and focusses on management information from Police Scotland on suspected drug deaths, to provide as timely an indication of current trends in drug deaths in Scotland as is possible. Statistics from the National Records of Scotland ( NRS ) are also presented for wider context.
There were 1,295 suspected drug deaths recorded between January and December 2021, 8% (116) fewer than the same period of 2020. However, suspected drug deaths remain at a high level and there continues to be an upward trend over the period for which data is available.
Classifying a death as drug related is complex. There are a number of different definitions of drug deaths, and this report focusses on two:
More information on National Statistics drug deaths definitions can be found in the methodological annexes of the official drug-related deaths publication on the National Records of Scotland webpage.
Police Scotland management information gives an indication of recent trends in drug deaths in Scotland based on reports from police officers attending scenes of death. Classification as a suspected drug death is based on an officer’s observations and initial enquiries at the scene of death.
Source: Police Scotland
The number of suspected drug deaths between January and December 2021 was 1,295. This was lower than the same period of 2020 where 1,411 suspected drug deaths were recorded. While the rolling annual total of suspected drug deaths has fallen over recent quarters, suspected drug deaths remain at a high level.
Over the calendar year 2021:
Over the most recent calendar quarter, October to December 2021:
Note that numbers of suspected drug deaths fluctuate from quarter to quarter and care should be taken not to interpret movements between individual calendar quarters as indicative of any long term trend.
A breakdown of suspected drug deaths by police division by calendar quarter for the period July 2020 to December 2021 can be found in Annex A.
More detail on the statistics presented above is available in the workbook provided here.
There are two different sets of statistics on the number of drug deaths in Scotland:
i. National Statistics published annually by National Records of Scotland. These are the official figures on the number of drug-related deaths registered in Scotland each year. Drug-related deaths are identified using data from death registration records supplemented with information from the Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service and forensic pathologists. Drug-related deaths in Scotland in 2020 includes more detail on the sources of data used to produce these National Statistics.
ii. Management information from Police Scotland on suspected drug deaths. This operational data is available more rapidly and more frequently than the NRS annual statistics described in (i), and provides a more timely indication of the likely trend in drug-related deaths. However, this management information is not subject to the same level of validation and quality assurance as National Statistics as it is based on officers’ observations and other circumstantial evidence, and it is not a replacement for the final drug-related death statistics produced by NRS . Section 5.3 of this report, “Relationship between Police Scotland suspected drug deaths and NRS drug-related deaths”, has more detail on how this data correlates with the National Statistics produced by NRS .
More information on the data sources, methodologies and interpretation of the data can be found in Annex B.
On 30 July 2021 National Records of Scotland published Drug-related deaths in Scotland in 2020. These official statistics are used in the development of policy by the Scottish Government and other interested parties such as the Drug Deaths Taskforce, NHS Boards and local Alcohol and Drug Partnerships.
In 2020, there were 1,339 drug-related deaths registered in Scotland, 5% (59 deaths) more than in 2019. This was the largest number ever recorded since the time series began in 1996. Drug-related deaths have been steadily increasing since 1996, but since 2013 the upward trend has been steeper (Figure 2).
Source: National Records of Scotland
Police Scotland suspected drug deaths correlate very closely with the NRS drug-related death statistics (Figure 3). Since the period ending in December 2018, the rolling 12-month Police Scotland figures have ranged between 3% and 6% above the NRS drug-related death figures.
Source: National Records of Scotland and Police Scotland
The table below shows both of the measures for calendar years 2018, 2019 and 2020:
| 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Police Scotland suspected drug deaths | 1,257 | 1,356 | 1,411 |
| NRS drug-related deaths | 1,187 | 1,280 | 1,339 |
| Percentage difference between NRS and Police Scotland figures | 6% | 6% | 5% |
Source: NRS and Police Scotland
More information on the data sources, methodologies and interpretation of the data can be found in Annex B.
The next ‘Suspected drug deaths in Scotland’ quarterly report will be published in June 2022, reporting on deaths up to March 2022.
The next annual drug-related deaths publication from NRS is due to be released in Summer 2022.
If you or anyone you know is affected by drug use, support is available via the following organisations:
